El-Drømme bliver til et mareridt

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Salg af elbiler ikke at tage ud som showroom virkelighed trumps marketing hype. Guardian hjemmeside har netop offentliggjort tal for antallet af nye biler registreret under regeringerne Plug-in bil tilskudsordning. Ordningen giver købere 25 procent off (højst 5000) prisen på en genopladelige elektriske køretøjer såsom en Chevy Volt, Toyota Prius plug-in eller Renault fluens.
Ordningen er nu to år gammel. Ifølge Institut for Transport tal, 1419 biler blev registreret under ordningen i de første ni måneder af 2012 op fra 786 i 2011. Så det ser ud som om hele 2012 vil se omkring 1900 genopladelige biler, der er købt, ud af to millioner nyheder biler, der forlod STORBRITANNIEN showrooms. Det er interessant, at kun en lille antal af varebiler blev indregistreret under ordningen i 2012.
Som man kunne forvente, har the Guardian et optimistisk citat fra Norman Baker, Lib Dem statssekretær for Transport. Jeg ved elbiler har en lys fremtid i dette land, siger han, citerer nye modeller grund dette år, herunder den relativt billig Renault Zoe og Sunderland-bygget Nissan Leaf.
Jeg ved ikke om dig, men jeg kan lugte afbrænding. Hele elbil bygningsværk kan være på nippet til at gå op i røg. Den enorme hype, der kørte bil beslutningstagere i udgifter hundredvis af millioner i at udvikle elbiler ligner det har ført til en udviklingsmæssig blindgyde.
Tage salg af Chevy Volt og Nissan Leaf - både førsteklasses biler - på det vigtige amerikanske marked. GM siger, at efter 7671 enheder i 2011, har Volt salg sprang 23,461 enheder. Thats bare mere end halvdelen af numrene GM ønskede at se, trods lav leasing omkostninger. Globale salg kan ramme 30.000 enheder. Og selvfølgelig, Volt har en benzinmotor, hvilket gør det en perfekt levedygtige normal bil. Hvilket sandsynligvis forklarer hvorfor salg af Nissan Leaf - en ren batteri bil - look, som hvis de plejer ramme fem tal i USA.
Sidste måned jeg kørte den gas-drevne VW Eco op i Frankfurt, som gjorde mig temmelig sikker på, at batteriet ikke vil flyve. VW er satse stærkt på gas og har designet både Ups NSF-platform og det nye MQB platform til at rumme twin gastanke. Gas er meget ren forbrænding - med stort set ingen forurening af udstødnings - og er også lav CO2. Eco-Up er faktisk godt for 79g/km, i forhold til den anslåede 75g/km til genopladning en elbil på europæiske lysnettet netværk.
En gas-drevne bil, som kunne tænkes blive opkrævet fra lysnettet netværk, er også meget billigere end en elbil. Og ironisk nok, Ups nødsituation benzintank giver en 120 mile sortiment - mere end du kan klemme ud af et batteri bil.
Sandheden er, at den elektriske bil revolution ser mindre sandsynligt. Batteriteknologi stadig fremme ikke langt nok og batteri priser er stadig høj. Og som en industri kilde fortalte mig, problemer ved at køre el-biler i vinter har fanget mange af overraskelse og alvorligt undermineret hele batteri bil koncept. Et typisk udvalg på døgnet kolde vintre kan være bare halvdelen af hvad er opnået i sommeren.
Audi har aflyst den elektriske A2, Opel har dåse Adam EV og Fiat er helt åben om tab-fremstilling af elektriske Fiat 500. Den mægtige VW-Koncernen satser på plug-in hybrider, men primært for at imødekomme de krævende Californiske marked. BMW ' s i3 er på udkig mere som fortiden end fremtiden. Med fossilt brændstof biler bliver stadig mere økonomisk og Euro 6-motorerne sat til at være effektivt forureningsfri, jeg er bange for, at EV koncept, er der allerede kører på tom.

Sales of electric vehicles are failing to take off as showroom reality trumps marketing hype. The Guardian website has just published the figures for the numbers of new cars registered under the Governments Plug-in Car Grant scheme. The scheme gives buyers 25 percent off (up to a maximum of 5000) the price of a rechargeable electric vehicle such as a Chevy Volt, Toyota Prius plug-in or Renault Fluence.
The scheme is now two years old. According to the Department for Transport figures, 1419 cars were registered under the scheme in the first nine months of the 2012 up from 786 in 2011. So it looks like the whole of 2012 will see around 1900 rechargeable cars bought, out of the two million news cars that left UK showrooms. Interestingly, only a tiny number of vans were registered under the scheme in 2012.
As you might expect, the Guardian has an upbeat quote from Norman Baker, Lib Dem under-secretary of state for Transport. I know electric vehicles have a bright future in this country he says, citing new models due this year, including the relatively inexpensive Renault Zoe and the Sunderland-built Nissan Leaf.
I dont know about you, but I can smell burning. The whole electric car edifice may be on the verge of the going up in smoke. The huge hype that drove car makers into spending hundreds of millions into developing electric cars looks like it has led to a developmental dead end.
Take sales of the Chevy Volt and Nissan Leaf - both first-rate cars - in the important US market. GM says that after 7671 units in 2011, Volt sales have jumped to 23,461 units. Thats just more than half of the numbers GM wanted to see, despite low leasing costs. Global sales might hit 30,000 units. And, of course, the Volt has a petrol engine, making it a perfectly viable normal car. Which probably explains why sales of the Nissan Leaf - a pure battery car - look as if they wont hit five figures in the US.
Last month I drove the gas-powered VW Eco Up in Frankfurt, which made me pretty certain that battery power is not going to fly. VW is betting heavily on gas, and has designed both the Ups NSF platform and the new MQB platform to accommodate twin gas tanks. Gas is very clean burning - with virtually no tailpipe pollution - and is also low on Co2. Indeed, the Eco Up is good for 79g/km, compared to the estimated 75g/km for recharging an electric car on the European mains network.
A gas-powered car, which could conceivably be charged off the mains network, is also much cheaper than an electric car. And, ironically, the Ups emergency petrol tank gives a 120 mile range - more than youll squeeze out of a battery car.
Truth is, the electric car revolution is looking less and less likely. Battery technology is still not advancing far enough and battery prices are still high. And, as one industry source told me, the problems of running electric cars in winter have caught many by surprise and seriously undermined the whole battery car concept. A typical range on a cold winters day can be just half of what is achieved in the summer.
Audi has cancelled the electric A2, Opel has canned the Adam EV and Fiat is quite open about the loss-making electric Fiat 500. The mighty VW Group is betting on plug-in hybrids, but mainly to placate the demanding Californian market. BMW's i3 is looking more like the past than the future. With fossil fuel cars getting ever more economical and Euro 6 engines set to be effectively pollution-free, I fear that the EV concept is already running on empty.