Llinyn Adroddiad Barclays yn cadarnhau stori TTACs am anawsterau alwminiwm F-150

Ford cyhoeddi y bydd gweithfeydd dyfarnu yn Dearborn a Kansas yn cael eu cau am gyfanswm o 13 wythnos wrth iddo ail-greu i newid cynhyrchiant i'r holl lorïau codi F-150 newydd sydd â chorff alwminiwm. Bydd lansiad F-150 2015 yn cael ei wylio'n agos, wrth i Ford a'i gystadleuwyr weld sut mae defnyddwyr yn derbyn y lori ysgafnach, drutach.

Yn y cyfamser, mae'n ymddangos bod adroddiad dadansoddwr yn cadarnhau stori gychwynnol TTACs bod Ford wedi'i orfodi i ohirio cynhyrchu'r lori newydd hyd at dri mis oherwydd anawsterau gyda'r corff alwminiwm newydd.

Nododd Brian Johnson, dadansoddwr gyda Chyfalaf Barclays, fod oedi eisoes wedi bod yn yr amserlen gynhyrchu, sy'n debygol o ganlyniad i heriau o ran stampio, ail-wneud a weldio'r alwminiwm, meddai Johnson mewn adroddiad a gyhoeddwyd yn gynharach yr wythnos hon. At hynny, mae Ford hefyd yn wynebu risgiau o ran costau gwarant uwch posibl a derbyn cwsmeriaid (gall prynwyr pigiad mawr fod yn wrthwynebus i newid, a gallant fod yn sgeptig o'r tryciau newydd).

Bydd llwyddiant y lansiad hwnnw'n cael effaith sylweddol ar elw FoMoCos 2014. Yn 2013, roedd tryciau cyfres F (sy'n cynnwys y llinellol codi dyletswydd trymach sy'n dechrau gyda'r F-250 ac sy'n rhedeg drwy'r lori dyletswydd ganolig F-650) yn cynrychioli 31% o werthiannau cerbydau ysgafn Fords . Amcangyfrifa Morgan Stanley fod y gyfres F yn cyfrif am 90% o elw byd-eang Fords.
Gallai'r amser segur cynyddol ar gyfer lansiad F-150 ostwng elw cyn treth Fords Gogledd America $ $800 miliwn eleni, yn ôl dadansoddwr Grŵp Ymchwil Buckingham Joseph Amaturo.
Nid dim ond cwestiwn o sut y maent yn dechrau gwneud a gwerthu'r lori newydd ychwaith. Rhaid i Ford reoli cynhyrchiant a rhestr o'r model sy'n mynd allan os ydynt am gynyddu elw. Mae angen i'r awtomeiddio adeiladu rhestr ddigon mawr fel nad effeithir ar werthwyr pan fydd y planhigion yn cau. Ar yr un pryd, nid yw am gronni gormod, gan arwain at ostyngiadau a chymhellion.

Ford announced that assembly plants in Dearborn and Kansas city will be shut down for a total of 13 weeks as it retools to switch production to the all new F-150 pickup truck that has an aluminum body. The launch of the 2015 F-150 will be closely watched, as Ford and its competitors see how consumers accept the lighter, more expensive truck.

Meanwhile, an analyst report seems to confirm TTACs initial story that Ford was forced to delay production of the new truck by up to three months due to difficulties with the new aluminum body.

Brian Johnson, an analyst with Barclays Capital, noted thatThere has already been a delay in the production schedule, likely due to challenges in stamping, riveting, and welding of the aluminum, Johnson said in a report published earlier this week. Moreover, Ford also faces risks with regard to potentially higher warranty expense and customer acceptance (large pickup buyers may be resistant to change, and may be skeptical of the new trucks durability).

The success of that launch will have a significant impact on FoMoCos 2014 profits. In 2013, F series trucks (which include the heavier duty pickup lineup that starts with the F-250 and runs through the F-650 medium duty truck) represented 31% of Fords light vehicle sales . Morgan Stanley estimates that the F series accounts for 90% of Fords global profits.
The increased downtime for the F-150 launch might lower Fords North American pretax profit by $800 million this year, according to Buckingham Research Group analyst Joseph Amaturo.
Its not just a question of how they start making and selling the new truck either. Ford needs to manage production and inventory of the outgoing model if they want to maximize profits. The automaker needs to build up a large enough inventory so that when the plants shut down dealers are not affected. At the same time it doesnt want to accumulate too many, leading to discounts and incentives.