This volume of the market, as in pre-crisis 2008, in Ukraine is not yet 15 years.

The volume of the automotive market of Ukraine (new passenger cars and commercial vehicles) in 232 thousand units (in 2012) today is adequate to the state of the economy in General and may show significant trends (both positive and negative) only when a substantial change of conditions on it, according to industry experts.

Today we have a fair amount of the market, therefore, it will not fall or rise to the emergence of some drivers. Car-not the subject, and if, God forbid, GDP will grow by 2-3, 5% per year, the behave the same way. So this year we don't expect its volume over 232 thousand units, but for themselves even lay a small cut-up to 225 thousand units, said Vice President of Vidi group Artem Tkachenko during a Roundtable on stimulating avtoprodaž.

He stressed, however, that such amount of the market as it was in the years before the year of 2008 (more than 660 thousand units) in Ukraine will not be 10-15 years.

At the same time in Russia car already was able to return to the pre-crisis level, because effective proved the Russian policy towards its stimulation (including premium paid when replacing your old car to the new). Ukraine still has no policy in this respect, "said Tkachenko.

At the same time, according to the General Director of the Ukrainian Association of automobile importers and dealers (the Association) Oleg Nazarenko, with the introduction of the new tax, which may become salvage collection and special duty on imported cars, the market may be reduced by 50-60%.

If you impose new taxes, with the continued financial market size (about 5 billion us dollars) cars can rise by 10/20/30, 20-30%. In such circumstances, someone might leave the market, pick up a shady business that now is minimal, and then the market may fall to 50-60%, believes the head of VAAID.

The experts emphasize that in such circumstances will inevitably happen consolidation auto dealer.

At the same time, added Nazarenko, even while maintaining today's rules on the market until there was no precondition for market growth. In many ways, the forecast will depend on how quickly switches to a stable hryvnia exchange rate (it's no secret that today she is overrated), and then, God forbid, that market has remained at the same level or increased by 2-3%, "said Nazarenko.

Present at the round table of representatives of Ukrainian commercial banks agreed that in the current year, the percentage of credit sales will remain at the level of the year 2012, that is about 20%, but the likely increase in the proportion of leasing (for legal entities) to 6-6, 5% compared to 5% in the year 2012.

When the head of car loan AstraBanka Vitaliy Zhikhartsev said the appearance of certain preconditions for lower rates on loans. If last year to retain the hryvnia at the end of the year, banks were forced to raise rates on deposits (and hence credit), now people see that, after the elections, nothing extraordinary has happened, not panic not, i.e. There is a some kind of thaw, and loan rates may fall to 1-2%, "he said, adding that the first quarter will have positive dynamics of lending.

Head of the Department of alternative sales channels of PJSC Bank of Cyprus Vladimir Radko believes that banks wondering lending purchases of used hirethe capacity of the market which is twice the market of new cars.

Of course, such lending to riskier and more expensive for banks, but we will try to develop this area, he said.

At the same time, according to Zhihartseva, this market is very complicated in its opacity, so it would be correct to translate it in the showrooms, and today some dealers already have such a car in the showrooms.