The conflict in the Japan-German alliance remains an illegitimate one. What are the possible scenarios for its continuation? Scenario 1: Volkswagen goes away-Suzuki wins. Germans bought 19.9% of Suzuki in 2009. It's about $1.7 billion. $ If we sell them now, the investment losses will be obvious. Maybe Suzuki will pay compensation to not break the partnership so frankly. But there's not a chance. Yes, and Volkswagen, no matter of acquisitions annually, the receiving billions of euros as a return of investment, does not need such an instant "cash flow", especially in the context of a declining market. According to some analysts, the Germans are likely to leave their share as investment in securities and wait for other proposals, however it may irritate Suzuki. The sale of a share with a loss is highly unlikely. Scenario 2: Volkswagen wins-Suzuki refuses to buy Italian engines. Suzuki is tearing up a deal with Fiat for the supply of diesel engines. This will mean that Volkswagen will accuse the Japanese automaker of violating the alliance's terms. In addition, the Italian side will inevitably be discontent. Which, of course, will affect the cooperation of Fiat and Suzuki, the fruit of which was the production of single-platform models SX4 and Sedici at Suzuki factory in Hungary. But I don't think so. Suzuki will not risk the cooperation with Fiat, his goal is to untie the VW. Scenario 3: The sides go to the truce and agree. Both companies still have the option of returning mutual trust. Suzuki may purchase parts of VW engines whose production is next door in Hungary. In response, the Germans could give targeted access to parts of their development and technology in areas where Suzuki is most interested. After all, the main goal of this union for the Japanese was the exchange of technology, which has not happened yet. Scenario 4: Both lose. Volkswagen will maintain its share by ending any contact with the Japanese side until its head, Osu Suzuki. This could then lead to a serious crisis in Suzuki. Shareholders will not be allowed to sell their share now and to lose the Germans. Suzuki, for its part, will refuse to assist VAG in the markets of India and UVA, seeing it as a hostile investor, and will expand cooperation with Fiat in areas where the friendship with Wolfsburg has failed. In this scenario, neither party wins. It's a situation. Scenario 5: Volkswagen is on the path of war. The red button that VAG possesses is the possibility of a complete acquisition of Suzuki. This is an unlikely and least favourable scenario. First, such transactions are extremely rare, particularly in the Japanese automobile market. Second, in order to achieve the necessary full fusion, they require the full support of the management and the state of the absorbed company. However, Germans may not resort to such extreme measures. It is enough to get another 5.1% of Suzuki shares on the market and get the blocking package, which will give them a different level of control. Anyway, the endgame is close. Today, the last term of Suzuki VAG will expire, so that the latter withdraws its accusations of discrediting. As the soles of Osu Suzuki, it is necessary to sell VW's share and terminate cooperation, which has become the cornerstone of his career. The Germans, in turn, insist that Suzuki immediately refuse to buy Fiat diesel for SX4 and Sedici, which in their opinion is a direct violation of the terms of the contract with VAG. The party goes into the endgame. Let' s see who gets his Colt out more quickly.